Tactical Investment Strategy June 2019

Once again, markets are entering the world of policy vs. fundamentals, where markets count on central banks to keep rates low and risk asset prices up, despite the weakening global growth picture. The downshift in growth has become more evident recently, with the early-year bounce in U.S. data fading, and trade effects and global weakness threatening to bleed into the U.S. consumer as the year progresses. So far, policy support across all major central banks has mitigated any damage to the capital markets that would normally occur. While we are skeptical that policy will reverse the slowdown, we acknowledge it will likely support risk markets over the coming months and keep firm downward pressure on rates. Given supportive policy but a fragile macro picture, we believe in staying fully invested; however, we rely more on tactical opportunities and relative value positioning than taking large duration or directional asset allocation tilts.

  • DATE: June 18, 2019

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