Survey of Consumer Expectations Points to Continued Labor Softness
November 11, 2025 — Last Friday, the Fed published its October Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). With official economic data delayed by the US government shutdown, insights like these have become especially valuable as markets and policymakers focus on two key issues: the extent of the labor market slowdown and the persistence of inflation.
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Fixed Income
The Edge of the Map
November 3, 2025 -- Expectations were high for the FOMC to deliver a dovish outcome in last week’s rate decision. As anticipated, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis...
Fixed Income
The Specter of Funding Stress
October 27, 2025 -- In a previous Notes prior to the September FOMC meeting, we wrote that the Fed's balance sheet runoff and increased Treasury bill issuance will continue...