Sage Advice Quarterly Market Review 1Q2009

With the release of the fourth quarter GDP data, there is no longer any doubt that the U.S. economy is destined to suffer one of the most severe recessions of the postwar era, if not the worst. Certainly, it will be the longest, easily surpassing the previous record of 16-months experienced during the 1974-75 and 1981-82 downturns. That threshold will be reached in April, and even the most optimistic forecaster does not expect a rebound in activity before then. The Fed itself only guardedly expects a modest recovery to set in sometime later in the year, and adds the caveat…” the downside risks to that outlook are significant.”