Weekly Market Commentary 04/22/2016

As it becomes ever more apparent that the economy delivered another lackluster first-quarter performance, the optimists looking for a spring revival are searching for slivers of hope. Indeed, if the Federal Reserve’s downwardly revised growth forecast for 2016 – from 2.4% last December to 2.2% in March – has a reasonable chance of being met, activity would have to rev up considerably over the final three quarters of the year. That could happen, of course. Recall that 2015 also started off on a sour note, posting a measly 0.6% growth rate in the first quarter. Yet, the final tally showed that real GDP increased by 2.4% for the year, only a tad less than the strongest annual increase of the recovery, the 2.5% gain registered in 2010.