Weekly Market Commentary 04/27/2018

After several failed attempts since early 2014, the 10-year Treasury yield finally pierced 3% this week, punctuating a gradual, if erratic, climb from 2.40% at the start of the year. Unlike previous false starts, the upward trend this time appears to have more fundamental support. The economy is about to become the second longest in history next month, inflation is picking up, the central bank is poised to lift short-term rates at least two more times this year, and fiscal stimulus is just starting to kick in. But despite this support, the bellwether 10-year yield is clinging to the 3% psychological threshold by a hair; indeed, it actually slipped a few basis points below it at the end of the week.