Weekly Market Commentary 11/18/2016

The economic calendar was very busy this week, including fresh data to kick off the fourth quarter as well as testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen before the Joint Economic Committee. The synergy between the data and testimony was strikingly apparent. For the most part, Yellen reaffirmed the message conveyed at the November 1-2 policy meeting, most notably that the case for a rate increase has strengthened in recent months. If that was so in early November, it is probably even more so following this week’s heavy spate of economic releases. We expect the central bank to pull the rate trigger at the upcoming December 13-14 policy meeting, lifting the federal funds rate a quarter-point from its current 0.25-0.50% range, where it has been since last December.