Weekly Market Commentary 2/15/2019

Just as we were ruminating about how the economy has entered a sweet spot of low unemployment, solid growth and tame inflation, a nasty revelation made an abrupt appearance that turned the narrative on its head. It appears that the holiday shopping season last year was not so festive after all, as the cash registers at retailers stopped ringing in December. In one of the more shocking reports to hit the headlines this week – belatedly because of the 35-day government shutdown – retail sales tumbled in the final month of the year, staging the biggest decline since September 2009. Consumers, of course, are the economy’s main growth driver – accounting for more than two-thirds of total economic activity -so the zipping up of their wallets and purses just prior to the new year is clearly not a trivial event.