Rates on the Precipice

September 9, 2025 — Last week, the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report for August came in softer than expectations, printing just 22k jobs versus the consensus of 75k. Coupled with the downward revisions of -21k to prior months, the three-month average payroll is just under 30k, well below the pace needed to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate. This marks a sharp reversal from the robust labor market seen earlier in the year, which had been buoyed by a string of upside surprises in employment data through late 2024.