Resilient Labor, Resilient Valuations

July 15, 2025 — The US Labor market has remained remarkably resilient despite concerns about job cuts in the government sector and broader economic headwinds. Nonfarm payroll (NFP) growth has averaged around 150,000 per month over the past 3 months — closely aligning with the breakeven pace needed to maintain the unemployment rate near its historically low level of 4.1%. This steady job creation underscores the underlying strength of the economy, even as headline risks continue to dominate the narrative.