Stuck in the Middle
September 29, 2025 — The August PCE inflation report confirmed that price pressures remain stuck in a holding pattern. Headline PCE rose 0.26% month-over-month and 2.74% year-over-year, while core PCE increased 0.23% MoM and held steady at 2.91% YoY. Inflation is not accelerating, but it is not falling quickly enough to reassure the Fed that the path back to 2% is secure.
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Fixed Income
Tariff Risk Is Manageable for US Pharma
September 26, 2025 -- New drug tariffs are here — but thanks to $325B in US manufacturing investments, domestic pharma is well-positioned to weather the impact.
Fixed Income
Rate Relief and Mortgage Spread Compression
In this week's Notes from the Desk, we examine how the Fed’s latest rate cut is reinforcing the strength of the MBS market. From spread compression to a shifting balance of...
Fixed Income
Rate Cut Marks Start of Fed’s Shift Toward Neutrality
September 17, 2025 -- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point at the September FOMC meeting, lowering the federal funds target range...