Tactical Investment Strategy — March 2024

March 19, 2024 — Tactical Investment Strategy provides an overview of key economic and policy themes and how Sage is tactically positioned in the current market environment.

Key Takeaways

  • As we approach the end of the first quarter, equity market returns have become more concentrated, and valuations are even higher. A meaningful uptick for risk assets would require a perfect macro follow-through (no landing, aggressive cuts), which we don’t believe will happen.
  • Rate cuts have been repriced for later in 2024, and “higher for longer” means bond investors can enjoy attractive yields for longer, with price gains down the road.
  • We favor active fixed income in the current environment and are cautious on risk assets, especially given that fixed income is offering the most attractive yields in 15 years.

Tactical Investment Strategy — January 2024

January 17, 2024 — Tactical Investment Strategy provides an overview of key economic and policy themes and how Sage is tactically positioned in the current market environment.

Key Takeaways

  • Strong economic momentum in the back half of 2023 and expectations of a Fed pivot have provided an optimistic tone to the consensus macro view, but we see a challenging backdrop ahead.
  • Our base case is a “softish” landing with weak growth, as consensus predicts, but a higher probability of one or two quarters being pushed into modestly negative territory.
  • Heading into 2024 we are focused on quality. Rate cuts are coming, yields will fall this year, and when combined with coupon carry, this should translate into strong fixed income returns. As such, we are overweight fixed income in our balanced allocations, and we expect core fixed income and municipals to reap strong returns in 2024. In equities, we are tilted toward high-quality exposure and regions with more discounted valuations and lower betas.

Asset Allocation Perspectives 2024 Outlook

January 10, 2024 — This presentation provides an overview of our market outlook and key themes, and it illustrates how Sage is positioned in the current environment.

Key Themes

Volatility Reversal

  • Expect equity volatility to reverse from historically low levels as sentiment is too dependent on a soft-landing scenario and front-loaded Fed cuts in 2024
  • Rate volatility was extreme in 2023 but should be more muted as we gain clarity on an easing path

Income-Focused Market

  • Expect strong flows into broad fixed income and credit as both institutional accounts and retail take advantage of yields and lock in duration
  • 2023 was a rare occurrence where bond yields moved above equity earnings yields; historically, this is a good signal to add fixed income, especially into peak rates

Lean Toward Quality

  • Attractive yields but tight spreads suggest that it doesn’t pay to give up quality for minimal yield pickup
  • For the credit allocation security selection will be key; a tactical addition of MBS also makes sense

Sage Advice 4Q23 Market Review + Outlook

January 10, 2024 — Strong economic momentum in the back half of 2023 and expectations of a Fed pivot have provided an optimistic tone to the consensus macro view, but we see a challenging backdrop ahead, especially for the first half.

Tax Aware Multi Asset Income Strategy Profile 4Q23

The Sage Tax Aware Multi Asset Income Strategy is a conservative yield-focused ETF strategy which seeks to meet investors’ income needs by tactically investing in the global taxable and tax-exempt fixed income market along with exposure to high-dividend equity and alternative segments. The investment and research process is built around Sage’s proprietary top-down multi-factor model that includes macroeconomic, fundamental, relative valuation and technical analysis.

Multi Asset Income Strategy Profile 4Q23

The Sage Multi Asset Income Strategy is a conservative yield-focused ETF strategy which seeks to meet investors’ income needs by tactically investing in the global fixed income market along with exposure to high-dividend equity and alternative segments. The investment and research process is built around Sage’s proprietary top-down multi-factor model that includes macroeconomic, fundamental, relative valuation and technical analysis.

Growth Strategy Profile 4Q23

The Sage Growth tactical ETF strategy is a global asset allocation portfolio that is managed consistent with the risk orientation of a growth investor. The strategy will invest in the global fixed income, global equity and alternative market segments. Tactical allocation decisions will be applied on two levels; at the broad asset class level and within the various fixed income, equity and alternative market segments.