Tactical ETF Performance Commentary 3Q21

October 14, 2021 — This one-page report details what contributed to and detracted from performance for the Sage Tactical ETF Strategies in the third quarter.

Tactical ETF 3Q21 Market Review & Outlook

October 11, 2021 — While demand is strong and the U.S. consumer is in a healthy position, continued supply-related price pressure on commodities and other goods could eventually damage consumption and give the transitory inflation story more of a structural feel, making the Fed appear behind pace. As it stands, our base case is for inflation and growth to moderate in tandem in the coming quarters, suggesting the Fed taper/tightening path laid out is appropriate. Given our outlook, we remain tilted toward equities in balanced strategies and overweight spread sectors in fixed income.

Tactical Investment Strategy, September 2021

September 20, 2021 — The third quarter has been a bumpy ride, with a surge in the Delta variant that has shifted the macro landscape and slowed the economic reopening. Other angst-inducing events include the tech crackdown in China, the question of peak growth in the U.S., and the Fed nearing a policy shift toward tapering. The most serious risk to growth and our overall outlook has been Delta, as it has induced a drag on economic data, reopening momentum, and confidence. This was evident in disappointing data over the last several months, a ratcheting down of third-quarter GDP expectations and, most recently, a dampening of inflation readings. Some of these effects will linger, especially in supply chain disruptions, but we see enough positives to keep us constructive on growth and risk assets for Q4.

Tactical Investment Strategy, August 2021

August 17, 2021 — Late summer has historically been a challenging period for risk markets, and this year looks set to follow that pattern –with an abundance of headline risk around spiking Delta variant cases, the China tech crackdown, and chaos in Afghanistan. So far, equities have been resilient to these risks, but we would not be surprised if markets consolidate 5% to 10% sometime before the fall. Despite these concerns, our overall macro view is still positive given favorable monetary policy and growth and earnings dynamics. As such, we remain constructive toward risk assets and higher-yielding fixed income over the medium term.

Tactical Investment Strategy, July 2021

July 15, 2021 — The post-pandemic recovery will continue to be the driving force for sentiment and returns in the back half of 2021. We expect an above-trend and broadening global growth picture to push risk assets higher, keep spreads stable, and apply upward pressure on rates in the coming months. Central bank policy, particularly the Fed’s taper timeline, will be a source of uncertainty and volatility, but we do not expect it to derail the recovery. Assuming Fed tapering starts in late 2021 and it takes roughly eight meetings for the Fed to scale down entirely, this implies another trillion dollars’ worth of purchases or liquidity into markets over the next 12 months – which is highly supportive to spreads and risk assets.

Asset Allocation Perspectives, July 2021

July 14, 2021 — The following presentation outlines the current economic conditions, policy response and valuations, as well as how Sage is positioned in the current environment.

Tactical ETF Performance Commentary 2Q21

July 13, 2021 — This one-page report details what contributed to and detracted from performance for the Sage Tactical ETF Strategies in the second quarter.

Tactical ETF 2Q21 Market Review & Outlook

July 8, 2021 — The post-pandemic recovery will continue to be the driving force for sentiment and returns in the back half of 2021. We expect an above-trend and broadening global growth picture to push risk assets higher, keep spreads stable, and apply upward pressure on rates in the coming months. From an economic perspective, we continue to expect global growth of 6% to 6.5% in 2021, with a Q3 peak of above-10% growth. The mix, however, has shifted; the U.S. and China recovery has matured, and Europe and emerging markets (ex-China) have picked up the slack as they begin to feel the benefits of increased vaccinations and economic reopening.