Product Categories: Tactical ETF

Tactical ETF 4Q20 Market Review & Outlook

January 26, 2021 — As we turn our attention, finally, toward 2021 we note that not only has the macro landscape changed dramatically over the past year, but it has also changed significantly over the last three months. A new U.S. president was elected, global Covid-19 cases surged, several high-efficacy vaccines entered distribution and, most recently, Congress passed further fiscal stimulus. Our view is that for the first half of 2021, the continued economic recovery, supportive policy, and effective vaccines should drive further upside in risk assets, sustain some upward pressure on long rates, and keep reflationary pressures alive.

2021 First Half Outlook & Positioning

Going into 2021, Sage is positioned for upside given continued positive economic momentum, accommodative monetary policy, a forthcoming fiscal stimulus package, and vaccine rollouts. In this piece, Sage illustrates our key themes and positioning for the first half of 2021, as well as the risks to our outlook.

2021 Tactical Positioning & Outlook

In this podcast, Sage’s Director of Research Rob Williams and Komson Silapachai, Vice President of Research and Portfolio Strategy, discuss the “key risk decisions” that inform our tactical investment strategy outlook and positioning going into 2021.

Tactical Investment Strategy, December 2020

For the first half of 2021, we believe a continued economic recovery, supportive policy efforts, and a vaccine-related normalization in activity should drive further upside for risk assets and upward pressure on long rates, and keep reflationary pressures alive. Our broad positioning remains geared toward upside with an overweight in equities across balanced strategies and a more a diversified posture within our fixed income allocations.

Staying Invested Through Market Volatility (Animated Video)

At Sage, we are tactical investment managers. That means when the market starts to take a turn, we shift toward stocks, bonds, and other securities that are likely to perform better than others given the market environment. This creates a smoother ride for investors and increases the likelihood that they stay invested.

Tactical Investment Strategy, November 2020

We are looking beyond election-related volatility and are focused on four pillars of the recovery – positive economic momentum (especially the U.S. consumer), favorable central bank policy, forthcoming fiscal stimulus, and the prospects of a vaccine. This view suggests staying positioned for further upside, and so far this has been rewarded in the fourth quarter with positive returns despite bumpy markets.

Sage Advice Tactical ETF Quarterly Market Review 3Q2020

Markets may have struggled during the second half of Q3, but the global economy did not, with data continuing to show evidence of a strong rebound led by the U.S. Most major data releases in the U.S. beat consensus expectations in recent months, and China has continued its recovery trajectory. Growth and virus concerns remain high for a hard-hit Latin America region and India, and we do expect moderation in Q4 growth as some of the initial rebound demand fades and certain stimulus programs phase out. The bottom line for investors is that the recovery is on track, and coupled with policy support, the likelihood of further stimulus, and a vaccine on the horizon, we suggest remaining positioned for further upside in equities and higher-yielding fixed income sectors.

The Cost of Going to Cash

October 20, 2020 — During the last four market corrections, on average roughly two-thirds of an investor’s downside was recovered in just two weeks. Pulling out of the market during a downturn in favor of cash would leave most investors in a bind, because timing when to reinvest that cash is extremely difficult (and the window of opportunity short-lived). At Sage, we are tactical managers. What does that mean? Instead of deciding when to exit and reenter the market, which is extremely difficult to time, we ask what segments of the market are likely to outperform? What is causing the correction? And, what asset classes are likely to have the most upside as the markets recover? At Sage, we believe there is always a more advantageous place to be than cash.